Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
PMIWDC Non-Member Rate
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About the Book Club Meeting
The PMIWDC Book Club is a forum for talking about books that touch on the widely varied challenges of project and program management. Our meeting on "Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts" will take place on June 19th, 2018 - the same evening as the Monthly Chapter Events from 5:30pm - 6:30pm.
Read more about the format of the book club in "About the Book Club" below.
About the Book
Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result.
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?
Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?
Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.
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Don't forget to register for the Monthly Chapter Event which takes place immediately after the Book Club.
Based on the amount of time you will spend in self-directed study of negotiation – we estimate up to six hours of reading, which converts to up to 6 PDUs for qualified PMPs who are under the 30 PDU limit for their current three year certification cycle. Please note that these PDUs will need to be reported as Self-Directed Learning. For full details on PDU reporting refer to the PMP Handbook.
About the Monthly Book Club
The Monthly Book Club is a forum for talking about books that touch on the widely varied challenges of project and program management. There is no Book Club membership. Anyone can sign up to join our conversations. There are just three key requirements: preregistration, reading the book before the meeting, and bringing a copy of the book to the meeting. Note that you should sign up early as we limit the discussion to fifteen people so that everyone has a chance to share their opinion.
Come to the Book Club with an open mind and prepare to have your understanding adjusted as you hear about the book through the voices of your professional peers.
Studying project management and related topics through books is recognized and rewarded by PMI in PDUs, roughly on the basis of one hour of study equals one PDU. Continued certification as a PMP requires the accumulation of these valuable credits and we are pleased to offer this opportunity to obtain both the important training and the educational credit associated with it.