Risk Management and Judgement under Uncertainty

Risk Management and Judgement under Uncertainty


Paul Quimby

Associate Director
Cask LLC

PMIWDC Non-Member Rate

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Event Location

Cask Technologies LLC
475 Aquia Towne Center Drive - Suite 305
Stafford, VA, 22554

Agenda and Cost:

Registration and breakfast buffet: 08:15 a.m. – 09:00 a.m.
Network with project management professionals: 08:30 a.m. – 09:00 a.m.
Announcements: 08:50 a.m. – 09:00 a.m.
Featured presentation: 09:00 a.m. - 10:00 a.m.
Wrap up: 10:00 a.m. – 10:15 a.m.
Pre-registration deadline is March 15th
Member Pre-registration: $15
Non-Member Pre-registration: $20
On-Site Member Rate: $20 (cash or check only)
On-Site Non-Member Rate: $25 (cash or check only)
Cancellations and refund requests are accepted up to 48 hours prior to the day of the event. We cannot offer refunds requested after that time.


475 Aquia Towne Center Drive - Suite 305

Stafford, VA 22554

There is no such thing as perfect knowledge. Risk – either negative or positive – is a function of uncertainty about the project and its environment. Risk Management is the disciplined approach to managing uncertainty by encouraging proactive thinking about project, program, and portfolio outcomes. Risk Management saves time, money, and human resources because it forces project teams to consider the “what ifs” that could happen to the project, and in doing so, teams develop strategies for handling threats and opportunities before they become issues.

In “On Risk Management and ‘Judgment Under Uncertainty’,” Paul Quimby explains how groundbreaking behavioral psychology research on heuristics and biases from Nobel Prize Winner Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky can affect the risk management processes of risk identification, risk analyses, and risk response planning.

Participants will review the risk management lexicon and risk management attributes, learn (in general) how human beings make decisions under conditions of uncertainty, and participate in a couple of explanatory exercises that highlight how heuristics and biases influence judgment under uncertainty. In addition, Paul highlights the implications of these heuristics and biases for Project Managers and Project Teams in the context of Risk Management.

The intent of the presentation is to help Project Managers and Project Teams improve their decision-making processes through a better understanding of the heuristics used by many people to make judgments under conditions of uncertainty and the biases to which the heuristics point.

PDUs Available: 
1.00 PDUs for Certified PMs
Talent Triangle Category: 

Event Keywords

Soft Skills


Effective communication, in general: audience, media / message, attention vs. "noise", etc.

Negotiation / Conflict

Tools and techniques for negotiations and conflict management / effects of personality traits, etc.

Industry / Sector

Construction / Infrastructure

Construction, Utilities or other public works, Transportation, or related industries


Federal, state, local or tribal government entities / Contractor for such entities


Information Technology, including organizations that utilize Agile development methodologies

About the Speaker

Paul Quimby

Cask LLC
Associate Director

Paul Quimby has over 25-years of experience managing and consulting on information technology projects and technology infrastructure projects. Paul has led project teams in a wide variety of organizations. He has a passion for risk management and data analytics and consults with project, program, and portfolio managers to drive their use of risk management and analytics tools in order to make informed decisions on risk mitigation strategies and project, program, and portfolio resource allocation.
Paul joined Cask LLC in 2011 as a program and portfolio management and risk management analyst and consultant. In this role, Paul facilitated the development and implementation of an enterprise risk management framework and process for a large portfolio of Marine Corps Information Technology programs. He has provided risk management best practice seminars and risk management training to a diverse client base, and he has been an advocate for using risk management tools and techniques to improve cross-team and cross-portfolio communication via the idea of the risk sphere of influence.
Paul is a retired Marine Corps helicopter pilot, and in that occupation, he used risk management tools, techniques, and processes every day to make sure his landings equaled his takeoffs.
You may connect with Paul on LinkedIn at: www.linkedin.com/in/paul-quimby-pmp-08412828
or contact him at paul.quimby@caskllc.com

About the PM Saturday

The PM Saturday quarterly breakfast meeting continues with an engaging speaker, a delightful breakfast, and opportunities to connect with professionals located in the southern-most region of Northern Virginia. Come join us and discover that Saturday morning is also a great time to earn PDUs and to network!

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