You're Doing It Wrong: How Your Decision-Making Actually Increases Uncertainty & What to Do About It
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About the Presentation
Ever wonder why decisions fail even after the most rigorous analysis? The problem isn't your analysis. The problem is, almost everything you've ever been taught about decision-making and analysis and the techniques you were asked to use to make decisions has been fatally flawed.
We've all been trained to do more analysis when uncertainty is high. This is a self-defeating cycle where the "solution" creates more of the problem.
Better business performance (read: features, quality, profit, etc.) visible to the outside world requires a better understanding of internal operations. Only then is better performance a reasonable expectation. On the inside has surprisingly more to do with decision-making than processes, compliance, or analytical rigor. Better performance requires completely new decision-making processes, not more of the same analytical processes that lead to ineffective decisions in the first place.
Our traditional analysis fails to reliably move us towards a decision with great confidence. It instead moves us towards a conclusion with misplaced confidence. In fact, traditional analysis-based decision-making is fraught with high built-in error and low buffers for error. We don't understand what's going on but we think we do. Worse still, we were trained to be thinking we have deeper understanding than we do.
High performance operations use probabilistic decision-making approaches instead of deterministic approaches. Using relatively straight-forward tools, we can obtain performance data change from a deterministic approach to a probabilistic approach that uses performance prediction models. Even without going so far as to work with models, the benefits of being aware of the limitations in our traditional decision-making mechanisms will improve how you make your next product development or service-related decision.
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About the Speakers
Hillel Glazer is the founder, Principal, CEO, and “all-around Performance Jedi” of Entinex, Inc., a Baltimore, MD-based management consulting firm made up of aerospace (and other) engineers. Its mission: to bring the same skills and critical thinking used every day in aerospace to solve complex business problems. An internationally recognized authority on bringing lean and agile values and principles into the regulated world, Hillel was selected as a Fellow of the Lean Systems Society in its inaugural fellows induction.
He and his company have close ties to the CMMI Institute at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, where he serves as an adviser on ways to bring together CMMI (Capability Maturity Model) process improvement models that create high-performance, high-maturity cultures, with lean and agile practices. He is the author of the 2011 book, “High Performance Operations,” and has written widely on the subject of high performance systems, models and organizations including the world's first peer-reviewed, professionally edited article on CMM and Agile in 2001 as well as the SEI's first official Technical Report on Agile and CMMI in 2008.
About the PM Industry Insights
PM Industry Insights is PMIWDC's workshop series that addresses the practical aspects of Project Management.
These sessions are to provide you with insights on what is going on in the local industry so you can learn from it. This discussion-based session will include presentations on tools, industry panels, interviews with industry experts, workshops, etc. The target presenters will be individuals from PMO’s, university professors, consultants, etc.
Both PM Industry Insights and the monthly dinner meeting are worth 1 Professional Development Unit (PDU) each to certified PMPs. Continued certification as a PMP requires the accumulation of these valuable credits and we are pleased to offer this opportunity to obtain both the important training and the educational credit associated with it.